Is a Central Asian Spring Likely?

Abstract

Like Middle East, the five ‘stans’ of the Central Asian region have repressive regimes, poor governance, ethnically fragmented populations, income inequality and a lack of opportunity. This, when combined with the past unrest including Islamic fundamentalism and vast energy resources in some of the regions, poses the question of whether there can be a “Central Asian Spring” with mass anti-government revolts and overthrows. This article examines the question via a review of these countries’ recent histories and current situations – case by case – along with an analysis of the regional security architecture. It comes to the conclusion that such an outcome is unlikely in the current context.