Afghanistan on the Brink :: Alternative Futures

Arun Sahgal

doi:10.54945/jjia.v1i1.23

Authors

Arun Sahgal Institute of National Security Studies

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54945/jjia.v1i1.23

Keywords:

Parliament, Elections, President Obama, Afghanistan, Peace-Making, Afghan-Taliban

Abstract

The article is a comprehensive analysis on the domestic as well as regional status of Afghanistan after the impending US withdrawal of troops in the next two years. The analysis is built on various possible scenarios which may change a political course in the country and how the regional powers play their parts in stabilising Afghanistan. The article discusses the ground situation in Afghanistan – how the ISAF and ANA (Afghan National Army) are coordinating in counter-insurgency operations and how far the ANA is prepared to tackle the situation after withdrawal of US troops. The major issue discussed is the resurgence of Taliban as it is still not defeated. The other major concern is Pakistan’s growing salience and posturing for strategic depth. What would be the Pakistan’s role in stabilising Afghanistan where it has to tackle the Afghan Taliban as it battles Tehreek-i- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) at home? The article also discusses the role of regional powers after US withdrawal and analyse various outcomes that may lead to maintenance of status-quo.

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Author Biography

Arun Sahgal, Institute of National Security Studies

Brigadier Arun Sahgal, Ph.D. (Retd) is Joint Director, Simulation and Net Assessment, Institute of National Security Studies, and Visiting Fellow, Vivekananda Kendra International. He is founder Director of the Office of Net Assessment, Indian Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), created to undertake long-term strategic assessments. Other academic pursuits include Head Center for Strategic Studies and Simulation, USI of India and Senior Fellow, IDSA. Research areas include scenario planning workshops, geopolitical and strategic assessments related to Asian security, including co-authored books and Net Assessments for both IDS and India’s National Security Council (NSC). He has been a member of the Task Force on Net Assessment and Simulation, under the NSC, and a resource faculty at Indian and international training institutions.